How Will Terrelle Pryor’s Departure Affect Ohio State?

As I’m sure you know by now, the Buckeye’s star QB, Terrelle Pryor, has left Ohio State after scandal and trouble followed him over the past 6-7 months. Ohio State now will likely choose Joe Bauserman, true freshman Braxton Miller, or sophomore Kenny Guiton.

In any case, whoever is selected as the starting quarterback is going to face an immense amount of pressure to replicate the success that Terrelle Pryor had. Let’s look at the “wins created” metric, originally invented by sports economist Dave Berri for gauging professional quarterbacks, and other players alike.

First, Terrelle’s net points produced, wins created, and wins created per 70 plays.

Net Points Produced – 156.20

Wins Created – 3.722

Responsible for 31.0% of 2010 Ohio State’s wins

Wins Created Per 70 plays – 0.569

Pretty impressive, right? Well, maybe not as much as it seems. 31.0% of his team’s wins is definitely above average, however, it might not be as impressive as one might think. 25% is average.

Fangraphs.com, which is a baseball site, shows something called WAR (Wins Above Replacement). WAR is calculated by showing how many wins a player creates above a “replacement” player. For them, replacement value is set to about 80% of the league average, and that’s what it’ll be here.

So, for Terrelle Pryor….

Wins Above Replacement – +1.322

Wins Above Replacement Per 70 Plays – +0.202

What does this mean? Well, it means that Terrelle Pryor created a win above his replacement counterpart about every 5 games. Basically, with Pryor at the helm, Ohio State is a 5-0 team. Without him, they are a 4-1 team to start out the season. Might not sound like a big deal, but a win or two more than replacement in college football is, because the margin for error in college football is so small, that even one loss can cost you a chance at a national championship.

Hope you guys have enjoyed this, and I hope it gives you Ohio State fans some clarity.

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This entry was posted in Advanced Stats, Player Comparisons, Team Previews and Analysis. Bookmark the permalink.

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