In part 1, we looked at how a QB improved from year to year through yards per attempt(YPA). Here in part 2, we will detail how I’ve built an early model of how to predict a QB’s performance for next year.
First, we will detail how to get a QB’s projected attempts. To get this number, we will take the player’s attempts and divide it by the team’s attempts. This will give us the percentage of attempts that the QB took. Then, we will take that percentage and multiply it by the player’s attempts.
After that, you take the percentage left over (i.e; a QB had 55% of his teams attempts. The percentage “left over” is 45%), and multiply by that. You then add that by a QB’s previous year attempts to get his projected attempts. We will use Jacory Harris as an example…
2010 Attempts: 270
2010 Team Attempts: 443
2011 Projected Attempts: 336
For Projected YPA(Yards Per Attempt), we will take the QB’s year, and use the percentage increase that you saw in the first post to get his projected YPA.
Note: Seniors will get a small increase instead of a 3.4% decrease.
Again, Jacory Harris is the example here.
2010 Yards Per Attempt: 6.6
2011 Projected Yards Per Attempt: 6.7
To get Projected Completion Percentage, we will take the YPA increase data and cut it in half to get projected completion percentage.
Then take the completion percentage from the player’s previous year and use it to multiply by the chart above.
Jacory Harris 2010 Completion Percentage: 54.8%
Jacory Harris 2011 Projected Completion%: 55.3%
Completion percentage is also used to determine how many completions a player will have, so don’t be alarmed or think I forgot something if you don’t see it listed.
Projected Touchdowns and Interceptions can be calculated using a players projected attempts and his attempts per touchdown/interception. A model similar to the YPA data is used. However, since TD’s and INT’s aren’t real consistent from year to year, there are higher numbers used to figure these stats.
Jacory Harris 2010 Passes Per TD – 19.3
Jacory Harris 2010 Passes Per INT – 18.0
Jacory Harris 2011 Projected Passes Per TD – 19.2
Jacory Harris 2011 Projected Passes Per INT – 18.0
So, now that we’ve got all the factors in place, we can figure Jacory Harris’ 2011 projected statline.
2011 Projection: 186-336, 55.3 Comp%, 2251 yards, 18 TD’s, 19 INT’s
Part 3 will examine completion percentage, and will see me refine my projection model more.