2011 Conference Predictions – Pac-12

Today, the Pac-12 gets the love from TKQ, and we’ve got the projected 2011 wins for you.

First off, a bit of an explanation (again) about how this works. The number at the side of the chart is a team’s true talent level. For example if some random team (we’ll say Oklahoma) has a 9.00-3.00; that would mean that the team is projected to come within 2-3 wins of the projection.

Again, this is more of a talent level evaluation than anything else. The formula used for this is a combination of a team’s previous year’s wins, with their previous year’s pythag. wins. Pythag. wins tend to be more of an indicator of future success than actual wins, so that carries more weight.

Anyways, here they are….


  • Utah has had to have their predictive Pythagorean wins reduced by 15% due to the rise of level of competition. Their original rating was a 8.74-3.26, which would have won their division.
  • Looks like a 4 horse race in the South. Arizona is projected to win it, but by the slimmest of margins. Arizona State, USC, and Utah are right on their heels though.
  • The north is strictly a two team race. Oregon and Stanford are heads above the competition in that division.
  • UCLA is probably going to get rid of Neuheisel. Even though he didn’t recruit some players on the roster, most of UCLA’s lack of talent is due to them getting out-recruited in their own state. In short; the football monopoly in LA is still in full effect.
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