Advanced Stats: Defense Independent Completion %

Want to know something?

Well I don’t care if you don’t, you’re going to know something anyways. Anyways, I thought about something one night…

I wonder if taking out passes defensed from completion percentage attempts would find something worthwhile

And, as it turns out, it might have, and the inspiration comes from the ultimate statistical sport; baseball. In baseball, DIPS, or Defense Independent Pitching Statistics measures how good a pitcher actually is, taking out errors by the fielders.

Similar concept, but a little different at the same time. DICP attempts to measure how good of a connection and how good of a chemistry a QB has with his receivers.

DICP takes out all interceptions and passes batted down from the attempts, and then uses the same process that one would use to figure out the regular completion percentage.

Anyways, here’s the results for two BCS conferences…..

Team – DICP – Starter

Alabama – 84.3% – Greg McElroy

Arkansas – 73.8% – Ryan Mallett

Auburn – 74.3% – Cam Newton

Florida – 69.5% – John Brantley

Georgia – 69.2% – Aaron Murray

Kentucky – 72.3% – Mike Hartline

LSU – 69.8% – Jordan Jefferson/Jarrett Lee

Mississippi – 64.5% – Jereimiah Masoli

Mississippi State – 69.0% – Chris Relf

South Carolina – 74.8% – Stephen Garcia

Tennessee – 67.6% – Matt Simms/Tyler Bray

Vanderbilt – 54.0% – Jared Funk/Larry Smith

The results for the SEC are about what you expect. Alabama’s Greg McElroy had the best overall DICP in the SEC with an amazing 84% of his passes completed without factoring in defense(that’s about 5/6ths of his passes complete, BTW).

Mike Hartline is one guy that a lot of people wouldn’t expect to be so good. His DICP is around 72%, which might only be 5th in the conference, but it’s still a pretty decent percentage.

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