2011 Oregon Ducks Team Preview
2010 Team Record – 12-1
2010 Pythag. Record – 11.69-1.31
2011 Rivals Recruiting Ranking – #9
2008-2011 Rivals Average Ranking – 18.25
2008-2011 Average Star Rating – 3.28
Oregon experienced a season like no other in the school’s history. 12-1, second consecutive Pac-10 title, second consecutive BCS bowl…
Not bad for a program that was considered a dumpster fire with Donald Duck as their mascot 20 years ago.
However, don’t blame Duck fans for feeling empty. They were one Michael Dyer stopped run from winning a national championship. That’s the kind of emptiness that will drive the Ducks this offseason and into 2011 and the inaugural Pac-12 formatted conference.
It all starts with the QB in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense. That man is Darron Thomas, a guy who had a breakout season a year ago, passing for 2800+ yards and rushing for another 500-700. Thomas’s decision making fueled an offense that was among one of the best in recent memory.
LaMichael James is the team’s other threat in Oregon’s option offense. He amounted over 1700 yards this year, and around 5-6 yards per carry. James finished 2nd in the Heisman balloting, and with Cam Newton gone, will battle it out with Andrew Luck of Stanford, at least early on.
On the outside, you’ve got guys who can beat just about any corner in the nation. Josh Huff, Lavaiser Tuinei, who was pretty well known to opposing coaches anyways, and Justin Hoffman are guys that America could get to know very well in ’11. H-Back David Paulson is an explosive change up receiver along with being Oregon’s third threat in their triple option packages.
In the trenches, Oregon has lost 3 out of their 5 starters. Carson York and Mark Asper are the two mainstays, but the starters you see listed below might not be the starters come opening day. The exterior offensive linemen typically are the guys pulling or leaving guys unblocked, so we’ll see how the inexperience hurts them there.
Overall, most of the pieces are still there for Oregon to make a run at a national title. If they can’t, the offensive line will be their downfall, even though the 5.21 rating is the highest out of the BCS teams I’ve done thus far.
Advanced Offensive Player Statistics
QB – Darron Thomas – 148.49 Net Points Produced, 3.278 wins produced, Responsible for 26.1% of Oregon’s wins, QB Score – 1513, QB Score Per Game – 116.38, QB Score Per Play – 4.20, Adjusted Yards Per Attempt – 8.5, Attempts Per Interception – 40.1
RB – LaMichael James – RB Score – 849, RB Score Per Game – 70.75, RB Score Per Play – 2.88
WR – Josh Huff – QB Attempts Per Reception – 20.7, Receptions Per Touchdown – 6.3, Yards Per Catch – 16.0, Explosive Receiver Index – 109
WR – Lavasier Tuinei – QB Attempts Per Reception – 10.9, Receptions Per Touchdown – 18.0, Yards Per Catch – 11.0, Explosive Receiver Index – 74
WR – Justin Hoffman – QB Attempts Per Reception – 131.3, Receptions Per Touchdown – 3.0, Yards Per Catch – 5.0, Explosive Receiver Index – 0
H-Back – David Paulson – QB Attempts Per Reception – 16.4, Receptions Per Touchdown – 6.0, Yards Per Catch – 17.4, Explosive Receiver Index – 142
OL – Darrion Weems – O-Line Shares – 42.77
OL – Carson York – O-Line Shares – 46.66
OL – Karrington Armstrong – O-Line Shares – 7.78
OL – Mark Asper – O-Line Shares – 50.54
OL – Nick Cody – O-Line Shares – 34.99
Advanced Offensive Team Statistics
Plays Per 6 points scored – 10.06
Rushing Yards Per Play – 5.93
Passing Yards Per Play – 8.68
Run/Pass Ratio – 61.5% run/38.5% pass
Points Per Possession – 3.6
True Red Zone Percentage – 73.5%
Offensive Line Rating – 5.21
Oregon had a pretty good defense last year. Granted, it might not have been as good as their offense, but it was good nonetheless.
However, sack master Kenny Rowe is gone, along with both interior linemen. Terrell Turner is the only guy that is still there from last year at one of the d-end spots. Both defensive tackle positions are open, and by all accounts, it’s a pretty open race. Wade Keliikipi and Taylor Hart look to be the best, but other guys like Issac Remington and Jared Ebert could get in the rotation at defensive tackle.
Outside of that, the defense looks pretty stable. Cliff Harris, Oregon’s all-American corner, is back, along with most of that secondary. Josh Kaddu is the leader at linebacker, although Michael Clay, an outside linebacker, looks to be a fast rising star as well.
Oregon’s defense could fall because of the experience of the d-line, but other than that, they should be just fine.
Advanced Defensive Team Statistics
Plays Per 6 points allowed – 23.78
Rushing Yards Per Play Allowed – 3.51
Passing Yards Per Play Allowed – 5.79
Opponent’s Run/Pass Ratio – 49.2% run/50.8% pass
Opponent’s Points Per Possession – 1.5
Opponent’s True Red Zone Percentage – 55.0%
Oregon is the odds on favorite to win the Pac-12 this year, and rightfully so. They have most of their offense back, and some of the key pieces on defense. However, team’s with weak or inexperienced o-lines tend to win a game or two less than what they really should. I don’t think Oregon has a lack of talent on line; however, lack of experience could be a factor. I’ll go Oregon to win the Pac-12 North, a Pac-12 title, and a BCS bowl game.
2011 Schedule(projected result in parenthesis)
September 3 – vs. LSU – (L 31-35)
September 10 – Nevada – (W 42-24)
September 17 – Missouri State – (W 63-7)
September 24 – at Arizona – (W 35-24)
October 6 – California – (W 30-10)
October 15 – Arizona State – (W 42-28)
October 22 – at Colorado – (W 28-7)
October 29 – Washington State – (W 49-12)
November 5 – at Washington – (W 32-22)
November 12 – at Stanford – (W 41-35)
November 19 – USC – (W 36-34)
November 26 – Oregon State – (W 38-17)
Nick’s 2011 Prediction – 11-1
2011 Predictive Record – 9.95-2.05