2011 Boise State Team Preview

2011 Boise State Broncos Team Preview

2010 Record – 12-1

2010 Pythag. Record – 12.38-1.64

2011 Rivals Recruiting Ranking – #NR

2008-2011 Rivals Average Ranking – Not Ranked in any rankings

2008-2011 Average Star Rating – 2.51

Offensive Write-Up

2011 sees change for the Broncos. They go from the WAC, their home for the last decade, to the Mountain West their new home for the foreseeable future.

In any case, the Broncos offense will be lead by Kellen Moore. Moore, considered by many to be the best mid-major player in FBS, has stats that make your jaw drop. An adjusted yards per attempt of 11.2. An astounding average of 63.8 passes per interception.

Moore is a darkhorse Heisman contender

This is his last chance to lead Boise to a BCS bowl, and potentially bigger things. Like a national championship, for instance. Yes, Boise’s chances might be quite low, but they’ve got the firepower to win one if they can get on a run.

Austin Pettis and Titus Young are gone, leaving the Broncos with two receivers who are pretty green in Gerald Hiwat and Aaron Burks. Both have never caught a touchdown pass in their short college careers, but Hiwat shows potential with his ERI above a 100.

For the Broncos hybrid H-Back position, Tyler Shoemaker returns, and could be Kellen Moore’s main target. His ERI is an amazing 176.

Boise’s offensive line is incredible for the level of competition they play. They have a rating of 5.30, by far the highest I’ve ever assigned, and 3 out of the 5 offensive linemen have line shares of over 50, which is all-American worthy.

Offensive Starters

Position Player
QB Kellen Moore
RB Doug Martin
FB Dan Paul
H-Back Tyler Shoemaker
WR Geraldo Hiwat
WR Aaron Burks
OL Nate Potter
OL Joe Kellogg
OL Thomas Byrd
OL Chuck Hayes
OL Brenel Meyers

Advanced Offensive Player Stats

QB – Kellen Moore – 204.42 Net Points Produced, 4.746 Wins Produced, Responsible for 39.6% of Boise State’s wins, QB Score – 2459, QB Score Per Game – 189.15, QB Score Per Play – 6.12, Adjusted Yards Per Attempt – 11.2, Attempts Per Interception – 63.8

RB – Doug Martin – RB Score – 657, RB Score Per Game – 50.54, RB Score Per Play – 3.27

WR – Geraldo Hiwat – QB Attempts Per Reception – 38.55, Receptions Per Touchdown – 11.0, Yards Per Catch – 14.6, Explosive Receiver Index – 109

WR – Aaron Burks – QB Attempts Per Reception – 70.7, Receptions Per Touchdown – 6.0, Yards Per Catch – 9.7, Explosive Receiver Index – 63

H-Back – Tyler Shoemaker – QB Attempts Per Reception – 13.3, Receptions Per Touchdown – 18.4, Yards Per Catch – 18.2, Explosive Receiver Index – 176

OL – Nate Potter – O-Line Shares – 61.88

OL – Joe Kellogg – O-Line Shares – 47.84

OL – Thomas Byrd – O-Line Shares – 61.88

OL – Chuck Hayes – O-Line Shares – 43.16

OL – Brenel Meyers – O-Line Shares – 52.52

Advanced Offensive Team Statistics

Plays Per 6 points scored – 9.31

Rushing Yards Per Play – 5.37

Passing Yards Per Play – 9.70

Run/Pass Ratio – 53.4% run/46.6% pass

Points Per Possession – 3.9

True Red Zone Percentage – 69.9%

Offensive Line Rating – 5.20

Defensive Write-Up

Boise State’s defense dominates it’s competition like no other. The Broncos allow the value of a touchdown around every 30 plays. To give you some perspective, that’s around 12-14 points per game, if you take the average of 68.4 plays per game.


Byron Hout leads the defense into 2011

Byron Hout is the defense’s best player. Hout has come a long, long way from being mostly known for getting punched by former Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount at the conclusion of their game with Oregon in ’09.

The defense’s 4-2-5 scheme is one that causes pressure from all angles and directions, allowing for multiple sacks per game. Boise State was #2 in sack percentage (percentage of pass plays ending with sacks), and only allowed 5 yards per pass, a pedestrian number.

It appears that Boise State is well equipped to make the move to the Mountain West.

Defensive Starters

Position Player
DE Tyrone Crawford
DT Billy Winn
DT Chase Baker
DE Shea McClellin
MLB Byron Hout
OLB Aaron Tevis
CB Ebo Makinde
CB Jamar Taylor
S George Iloka
S Travis Stanaway
N Hunter White

Advanced Defensive Team Statistics

Plays Per 6 points allowed – 30.07

Rushing Yards Per Play Allowed – 2.93

Passing Yards Per Play Allowed – 5.29

Opponent’s Run/Pass Ratio – 55.4% run/44.6% pass

Opponents Points Per Possession – 1.1

Opponent’s True Red Zone Percentage – 45.0%

Personal Thoughts

It’s quite obvious that Boise State is a good, good football team, and that they will likely dominate the Mountain West as well as they did the WAC. However, are they better than TCU? I’m not quite sure. But I do know that they could be in contention next year for a national title

2011 Schedule(Projected Results In Parenthesis)

September 3 – vs. Georgia – (Too Close To Call)

September 17 – at Toledo – (W 34-17)

September 24 – Tulsa – (W 42-35)

October 1 – Nevada – (W 28-21)

October 7 – at Fresno State – (W 35-25)

October 15 – at Colorado State – (W 59-16)

October 22 – Air Force – (W 32-20)

November 5 – at UNLV – (W 62-20)

November 12 – TCU – (Too Close To Call)

November 19 – at San Diego State – (W 30-14)

November 26 – Wyoming – (W 56-21)

December 3 – New Mexico – (W 52-20)

Nick’s 2011 Prediction – 10-0(w/o Georgia and TCU)

2011 Predictive Record – 10.21-1.79

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