2011 LSU Team Preview

2011 LSU Tigers Team Preview

2010 Record – 11-2

2010 Pythag. Record – 9.89-3.11

2011 Rivals Recruiting Ranking – #6

2008-2011 Rivals Ranking Average – 6.25

2008-2011 Average Star Rating – 3.65

Offense Write-Up

The boys in Baton Rouge are back, and they’re ready to contend for the crystal ball. However, in order for that to happen, they’re going to need to see their QB play get better. Jordan Jefferson, at the time of this preview, was still the #1. However, LSU fans are talking about the future. His name is Zach Mettenberger, the transfer from Georgia who could help the Tigers find that extra bit of punch they need to win a national title.

Rueben Randle is a dynamic playmaker

In order for whoever the QB is for succeed, the Tigers need their receivers to be productive. Rueben Randle is a guy who was targeted by Jordan Jefferson once every 6 or 7 passes, and averaged over 16.5 yards per catch.

Russell Sheppard, after moving from star quarterback prospect to a slot receiver, hopes to find his home outside at the flanker position. His ’10 stats weren’t great, only having 1 touchdown catch, even though Jefferson targeted the same exact amount of times. Sheppard also averaged almost 9 yards less per catch. However, his blazing speed should be benefit with his move to flanker.

Running back Spencer Ware takes over for Stephen Ridley. Ware averaged a 4.12 RB score per play (which is really good) . However, his ’10 season only saw him carry the ball 25 times.

The offensive line is pretty good as well, only allowing a little under 2 sacks per game, and having a line rating of 4.38.

Offensive Starters

QB – Jordan Jefferson/Zach Mettenberger

RB – Spencer Ware

FB – JC Copeland

WR – Rueben Randle

WR – Russell Sheppard

TE – DeAngelo Peterson

OL – Chris Faulk

OL – Will Blackwell

OL – Josh Dworaczyk

OL – Alex Hurst

OL – Patrick Lonergan

Advanced Offensive Stats

QB – Jordan Jefferson – 52.16 net points produced, 0.950 wins produced, responsible for 8.64% of LSU’s wins in 2010, QB Score – 115, QB Score Per Game – 8.85, QB Score Per Play – 0.35, Adjusted Yards Per Attempt – 5.3, Passes Per Interception – 21.1

RB – Spencer Ware – RB Score – 103, RB Score Per Game – 9.36, RB Score Per Play – 4.12

WR – Rueben Randle – QB Attempts Per Reception – 6.33, Receptions Per Touchdown – 11.0, Yards Per Catch – 16.5, Explosive Receiver Index – 119

WR – Russell Sheppard – QB Attempts Per Reception – 6.33, Receptions Per Touchdown – 33.0, Yards Per Catch – 7.7, Explosive Receiver Index – 40

OL – Chris Faulk – O-Line Shares – 38.98

OL – Will Blackwell – O-Line Shares – 17.52

OL – Josh Dworaczyk – O-Line Shares – 45.99

OL – Alex Hurst – O-Line Shares – 35.48

OL – Patrick Lonergan – O-Line Shares – 45.99

Advanced Offensive Team Stats

Plays Per 6 points scored – 13.04

Rushing Yards Per Play – 4.53

Passing Yards Per Play – 6.72

Run/Pass Ratio – 64.1% run/35.9% pass

Points Per Possession – 2.5

True Red Zone Percentage – 69.6%

Offensive Line Rating – 4.38

Defensive Write-Up

The Tigers lost Patrick Peterson, their star returner and playmaker to the NFL. However, there’s no reason to get really concerned with Morris Claiborne covering at corner. Claiborne was an all-conference selection in 2010 and helps to make the LSU secondary one of the best in college football, even if Peterson is gone.

 

Claiborne is a nightmare for QB's and WR's alike

There is a weakness on defense, and that is the interior. LSU will probably start two guys who haven’t been full time starters yet in Josh Downs and Michael Brockers. Luckily, the back 7 for LSU is championship worthy, and will be plenty ready to go at the SEC in 2011.

Defensive Starters

DE – Sam Montgomery

DT – Josh Downs

DT – Michael Brockers

DE – Lavar Edwards

OLB – Ryan Baker

MLB – Kevin Minter

OLB – Stefoin Francois

CB – Tyrann Mathieu

CB – Morris Claiborne

S – Craig Loston

S – Brandon Taylor

Advanced Defense Team Stats

Plays Per 6 points allowed – 20.81

Rushing Yards Per Play Allowed – 3.73

Passing Yards Per Play Allowed – 6.42

Opponent’s Run/Pass Ratio – 58.2% run/41.8% pass

Opponent’s Points Per Possession – 1.6

Opponent’s True Red Zone Percentage – 73.4%

Personal Thoughts

The Tigers could very well be my pre-season #1 after all the previews are done with. They play defense well, and if Zach Mettenberger turns out to be the starter and a good QB, or even serviceable, the offense will be good enough to win a national title. The only weakness would be at defensive tackle, and even though that could be a problem, I can see the Tigers holding up the crystal ball. The battle will Alabama will likely be a BCS championship play-in game, and will probably be the most hyped regular season game since the ’06 Michigan-Ohio State game…

2011 Schedule(projected result in parenthesis)

September 3 – vs. Oregon – (W 35-31)

September 10 – Northwestern State – (W 35-7)

September 15 – at Mississippi State – (W 32-17)

September 24 – at West Virginia – (W 45-17)

October 1 – Kentucky – (W 28-13)

October 8 – Florida – (W 34-28)

October 15 – at Tennessee – (W 24-10)

October 22 – Auburn – (W 33-27)

November 5 – at Alabama – (Too Close To Call)

November 12 – Western Kentucky – (W 31-6)

November 19 – at Ole Miss – (W 28-21)

November 25 – Arkansas – (W 22-19)

Nick’s 2011 Prediction – 11-0(w/0 Alabama game)

Predictive Pythag. Record – 9.15-2.85

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